Please Note: Values within the Ratings Suite
change when scratchings or track conditions are updated. Regular
updates are performed on race day, so be sure to re-visit purchased
meetings whenever scratchings are finalised, or track conditions
change. A value of 'n/a' or 'no data' simply means there is
insufficient form data for a meaningful calculation to be
displayed.
Explanations
Neural Rating
This is essentially a rating based on a broad spread of
statistical factors. Achievements are measured relative to the
horse population as a whole (and sometimes market expectations),
rather than being specifically based on individual performance.
Twenty factors are used within the calculation and this rating is
likely to be the most closely aligned with market expectations for
an upcoming race. That is, the neural rated price, when looked at
over a very large sample, will generally have a strike rate which
is in line with the winning probability associated with that
price.
Class or Weight rating
Every class of race is given a numerical value (in kg) and
runner ratings are determined by taking the assigned Class value
for the race, adding the WOL (weight over limit) amount and
subtracting a beaten margin adjustment. The beaten margin
adjustment involves converting the amount a horse has been beaten
in lengths, to an equivalent weight value (in kilograms). This type
of rating has the benefit of not being influenced by race pace,
time or track conditions etc.
Race Time rating
Each runner is rated purely using their overall race time. The
rating is a performance measure which compares the race time
against a benchmark or Par time for the track and distance. Each
rating contains adjustments for par time 'strength', potential
weight for age improvement, race pace, weight carried and
prevailing track conditions. These adjustments are made so we can
compare 'apples with apples', regardless of when, where, or how
races have been run. This type of rating does not have any race
Class considerations.
Sectional Time Rating
Each runner is rated purely using their last 600m sectional
time. All other comments relating the overall race time rating
(above) apply to the sectional time rating. The unique aspect of
this rating is that we have individual sectional times (spanning
several years) on which to base the rating, available for all
runners, across most metropolitan and provincial race meetings
conducted throughout Australia (we use digital timing, off race
videos to obtain these ourselves).
Pf Score
This encompasses each of the previous four ratings methodologies
and takes the form of a 'consensus score' from 0 to 100. How each
runner has 'ranked' in each of the four ratings categories (or
three, where there is no sectional rating available) contributes to
the final consensus score. This value appears for all runners
listed in the meeting form guides (provided you have a current
monthly ratings subscription) and links to the relevant Ratings
Suite published for that meeting (as well as providing a link for
individual meeting purchases).
Run Style
The run style indicator categorises where each runner has
typically settled in its past performances. Our research has shown
that regardless of early speed ability a horse will try and take up
its 'usual' position in running. Early speed ability is the factor
which will determine how easily it is likely to be able to attain
this position and how much energy it will have available to finish
the race off.
Predicted Settle Position
As the name suggests, the predicted settle position is where we
are predicting the runner to settle in the upcoming field of
horses. This is a useful indicator when looked at in combination
with run style. For instance, a horse with L (leader) as a run
style, which is predicted to settle 4th in running, will most
likely have to work hard to hold a prominent position.
Reliable Data Quantity
This is a simple yes/no indication of whether a particular race
has sufficient 'relevant' form data for the ratings to be
'reliable'.
How are the various Rating Ranks arrived at?
The Meeting Quick Guide format shows the top four ranked runners
in each rating category. These rankings are NOT based on career
best performance or any sort of average rating figure etc. Our
ranking (and pricing) algorithm is based on what is known as a
'paradox of odds' approach. We determine a likely 'performance
envelope' for each horse based on past ratings and have each horse
participate in what amounts to thousands of simulated contests, to
determine a winning probability for each runner in an upcoming
race.